Win Probability Calculator
Estimate your probability of winning any government contract using our Bayesian analysis model. Answer a few questions about your competitive position and get an instant pWin score.
Bayesian Analysis
Same model used by top capture teams
Go/No-Go Decision
Data-driven pursuit guidance
Actionable Insights
Specific recommendations to improve
Opportunity Details
Tell us about the contract you are pursuing.
How the pWin Calculator Works
Enter Opportunity Details
Provide basic information about the contract, agency, value, and set-aside type.
Assess Your Position
Rate your past performance, competitive stance, and technical capabilities.
Get Your Score
Receive a Bayesian pWin percentage with Go/No-Go guidance and actionable recommendations.
Methodology: Our calculator uses a Bayesian probability model that considers 7 weighted likelihood ratio factors including past performance, competitive landscape, pricing position, technical capability, and compliance readiness. The same model powers our full platform used by capture teams managing multi-million-dollar pursuits.
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Go beyond static calculations. Track pWin in real-time, analyze competitors, optimize pricing, and manage your entire capture pipeline.
This tool provides estimates based on publicly available data and proprietary analysis. Results are for informational purposes only and should not be considered professional advice. Actual win probability depends on many factors not captured in this model.