Recompete Prediction Engine — How Aliff Forecasts Contract Rebids

The Recompete Prediction Engine is one of four proprietary analytical engines in the Aliff Solutions platform. It forecasts when federal contracts are approaching rebid by analyzing contract end dates, option year patterns, modification histories, and agency acquisition forecasts. The output is a forward calendar of expected recompete opportunities ranked by relevance to the client's NAICS codes and target agencies.

The engine typically surfaces recompete opportunities 6-24 months before competitors learn about them. Visibility starts at award by tracking the contract's period of performance and option year structure; refinement happens as the contract progresses and modification, performance, and option exercise data accumulates.

Primary sources include FPDS-NG for contract end dates and option history, SAM.gov for pre-RFP signals, USASpending for obligation trends, agency-specific acquisition forecast pages, GAO bid protest decisions, and public CPARS proxies. The engine pulls these daily and updates predictions as new data arrives.

The engine applies predictive valuation models to the historical award data — analyzing prior award values, modification adjustments, and inflation patterns. The forecast accounts for likely scope changes based on agency announcements and prior recompete patterns. The output supports bid/no-bid decisions before a draft RFP exists.

Predicted recompetes feed directly into Phase 01 (Strategic Planning) of the 9-Phase Win Loop. The forward calendar lets capture managers align customer relationship building, capability investments, teaming discussions, and pricing analysis to expected RFP windows 18-24 months ahead — when the work has the highest leverage.

Option year tracking just reports which contracts have options remaining. Recompete prediction is forward-looking — it evaluates the probability that each option will be exercised versus the contract going to recompete or bridge extension. Contracts with skipped or partially-exercised options have meaningfully higher recompete-loss probability and the engine adjusts predictions accordingly.

Yes. Bridge contracts (short-term extensions while a recompete is in progress) follow recognizable patterns — typically issued 30-90 days before contract expiration when the recompete RFP has slipped. The engine flags candidates for bridge issuance and tracks the resulting recompete window, which is often 6-18 months further out than originally projected.