How to Predict Federal Contract Recompetes: A Data-Driven Approach

Why Recompete Prediction Matters

Federal contract recompetes represent one of the most significant -- and most predictable -- business development opportunities in government contracting. When an existing contract nears its end, the agency must decide whether to recompete the work, exercise options, or take another path.

For challengers, recompetes offer an advantage over new requirements: you can study the incumbent, understand the agency's needs, and prepare well in advance. For incumbents, early warning of recompete activity is essential for retention planning.

"The contractors who win recompetes are the ones who start preparing 18-24 months before the RFP drops. Data-driven prediction gives you that critical head start."

The Anatomy of a Federal Contract Lifecycle

Understanding when a contract becomes eligible for recompete requires knowledge of the federal contract lifecycle:

Base Period + Option Years

Most federal contracts follow a structure of:

• Base Period: 1 year (sometimes 6 months)
• Option Years: 1-4 additional years, exercised at the government's discretion
• Total Period of Performance: Typically 5 years (1 base + 4 options)

When Recompetes Happen

Recompete activity typically begins:

• 18-24 months before PoP end: Acquisition planning starts
• 12-18 months before PoP end: Requirements development
• 6-12 months before PoP end: RFP drafting and release
• 3-6 months before PoP end: Evaluation and award

Six Signals That Predict Recompetes

Our recompete prediction engine analyzes six weighted signals:

1. Time to End of Period of Performance (Weight: 25%)

The strongest predictor is simply how close the contract is to its expiration date.

Key indicators:

• Contracts in the final option year are 85% likely to recompete
• Contracts with 12-18 months remaining are in the active planning window
• Contracts approaching PoP end without option exercises signal imminent recompete

2. Option Year Status (Weight: 20%)

How many options have been exercised, and how many remain?

• All options exercised: Recompete is virtually certain
• Final option year: High probability (70-90%)
• Multiple options remaining: Lower near-term probability, but worth monitoring
• Unexercised options past deadline: Strong recompete signal

3. Bridge Contract Indicators (Weight: 15%)

Bridge contracts are short-term extensions used when the agency needs more time for recompete. They are a nearly 100% reliable signal that recompete is underway.

Look for:

• Short-duration modifications (6-12 month extensions)
• Contract actions labeled as "bridge" or "interim"
• Modifications near the end of the final option period
• Sole-source justifications citing "maintaining continuity"

4. Incumbent Performance (Weight: 15%)

The incumbent's past performance directly affects the agency's likelihood to compete the work.

• Outstanding CPARS: Agency may prefer to sole-source or exercise options
• Satisfactory CPARS: Standard recompete expected
• Below average or poor CPARS: Agency is highly motivated to find a replacement
• Protests or disputes: Increases likelihood of full and open competition

5. Contract Value and Strategic Importance (Weight: 15%)

Higher-value contracts receive more scrutiny and are more likely to be formally recompeted.

• Contracts above the simplified acquisition threshold are more likely to be competed
• Mission-critical contracts may receive sole-source treatment for continuity
• Contracts with strong past performance on high-value programs may be consolidated or recompeted

6. Agency-Specific Patterns (Weight: 10%)

Different agencies have different procurement tendencies:

Assessing Incumbent Vulnerability

Once you identify a potential recompete, the next step is assessing whether you can displace the incumbent. Our Incumbent Vulnerability Score evaluates six factors:

Performance Risk (25%)

• CPARS ratings and trends
• Quality issues or corrective action requests
• Schedule performance (on-time delivery)

Protest History (15%)

• Previous protests filed against or by the incumbent
• Bid challenge history
• GAO or COFC decisions

Pricing Position (20%)

• Is the incumbent's pricing competitive with current market rates?
• Have labor rates inflated significantly since the original award?
• Is there room to offer a better value proposition?

Relationship Strength (15%)

• How embedded is the incumbent in the agency?
• Are key agency personnel rotating or retiring?
• Has the program office changed leadership?

Contract Health (15%)

• Any negative modifications or de-scoping?
• Funding stability
• Performance-Based contracting compliance

Market Dynamics (10%)

• New entrants with relevant capabilities
• Technology shifts that favor new solutions
• Small business set-aside pressure

Building Your Recompete Capture Strategy

Phase 1: Intelligence Gathering (18-24 months out)

1. Monitor FPDS-NG for contract modifications and option exercises
2. Track SAM.gov for pre-solicitation notices and sources sought
3. Research the incumbent (website, LinkedIn, press releases)
4. Identify key agency personnel and decision makers
5. Analyze the incumbent's pricing through GSA Schedule or other available data

Phase 2: Positioning (12-18 months out)

1. Develop your teaming strategy and identify partners
2. Begin customer engagement (agency meetings, industry days)
3. Build your solution approach differentiators
4. Identify and commit key personnel
5. Develop your price-to-win strategy

Phase 3: Active Capture (6-12 months out)

1. Respond to RFIs and draft RFPs
2. Finalize teaming agreements
3. Develop detailed technical and management approaches
4. Refine pricing based on competitive intelligence
5. Prepare your proposal team and color review process

Phase 4: Proposal and Award (0-6 months)

1. Execute your proposal development plan
2. Conduct rigorous compliance and quality reviews
3. Prepare for oral presentations if required
4. Develop your transition plan
5. Be ready for post-award debriefs and potential protests

Leveraging Technology for Recompete Intelligence

Manual tracking of recompete opportunities across FPDS-NG, SAM.gov, USASpending, and agency forecasts is time-consuming and error-prone. Modern GovCon intelligence platforms automate this process by:

• Continuously monitoring contract databases for timeline changes
• Scoring recompete probability based on multiple signals
• Alerting your team when high-probability recompetes enter the planning window
• Providing incumbent analysis with vulnerability scoring
• Integrating with your pipeline for seamless capture management

Key Takeaways

1. Start early: The most successful recompete captures begin 18-24 months before the expected RFP
2. Use data, not intuition: Quantitative analysis of contract timelines, incumbent performance, and competitive dynamics produces better decisions
3. Monitor multiple signals: No single data point is definitive -- combine timeline analysis, bridge indicators, performance data, and market intelligence
4. Assess incumbent vulnerability: Not all recompetes are worth pursuing -- focus on those where the incumbent shows clear vulnerability
5. Build relationships: Technology and data are powerful, but customer intimacy remains essential

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Want to automate your recompete prediction? Aliff Solutions monitors federal contracts in real-time and provides vulnerability-scored recompete alerts directly to your pipeline. Book a demo to see it in action.